Current 2010 Senate Outlook: Net Republican Gain of 4 Seats

Previous forecast, 11/17: Republican net gain of four seats

New polls: Arkansas, Florida, Missouri

Rankings change: As Rubio gains in the Republican primary and as Meek gains on Rubio in the general election, Florida moves ahead of North Carolina and Louisiana.

Commentary: It is worth noting that while the Senate forecast has been stuck on a Republican net gain of four for the entire month of November, it seems more likely that the situation will get worse for Democrats, rather than better.  The are two main reasons for this.

First, Democratic-held seats in New York and Wisconsin are currently uncompetitive, but would become lean-Republican if the GOP scored top recruits.  This is because Russ Feingold slightly trails Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin, and Kirsten Gillibrand signifcantly trails Rudy Giuliani.

Second, as the economy continues to tank, there could be an across the board shift toward Republicans in these seats.

The combination of these two factors makes a ten-seat Republican pickup possible.  If Republicans sweep of the races on the Senate chart, plus New York and Wisconsin, the Senate will be 50-50 for 2011-2012.  And that is assuming no of the Conservadems switches parties (cough, Lieberman, cough), thereby throwing Senate control to Republicans outright.

Bad times for Democrats electorally.  The entire forecast can be found in the extended entry.

Read the full article here.