What kind of turnout do you believe a JULY primary runoff would produce?

If a leading candidate fails to get more than 40 percent of the vote in a North Carolina primary election race this May, when is the runoff?

It depends.

The runoff recently has been held seven weeks after the primary, which this year would be June 26. But a new state law designed to fulfill a federal mandate would delay all runoffs until July 17 should one be needed for a congressional primary.

Given some U.S. House primary races are expected to have several candidates running – at least nine Republicans have expressed interest in the 11th Congressional District nomination, for example – there’s a good chance at least one election will fail to be resolved at the May 8 primary. Only the top two vote-getters advance to the runoff.

— Bartlett said Thursday three additional weeks would be needed to comply with new federal requirements that North Carolina military personnel and other state residents living overseas are sent absentee ballots 45 days before the runoff. The General Assembly approved the primary runoff date change with little fanfare last year as part of broader legislation designed to streamline voting for these citizens.

—

The wait between the primary and the runoff had been four weeks through 2006. The Legislature passed a law that year to extend the difference in future years to seven weeks after the U.S. Department of Justice filed a complaint to enforce a previous law for military and overseas voters.

A 2009 federal law required the 45-day window to send and collect these absentee ballots.

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What kind of turnout do you believe a JULY primary runoff would produce?  The article states that in 2008 only 1.9% of democrats turned out for a primary runoff, and we know that turnout was low for the 2010 turnout. How do you believe this will affect congressional races this year?